Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 15.038531 17.151160 19.413643 22.012147 24.909246 28.034993 31.657584
2025-09-21 11.644107 14.475092 17.733102 21.740772 26.517449 32.006977 38.770456
2025-09-28 9.510554 12.520532 16.152720 20.823884 26.633488 33.580020 42.468919
2025-10-05 8.539966 11.815494 15.932641 21.431482 28.519434 37.278138 48.840457
2025-10-12 7.735746 11.180672 15.667731 21.859700 30.089073 40.546076 54.716556
2025-10-19 6.865096 10.345802 15.035656 21.709858 30.837243 42.739045 59.260402
2025-10-26 6.118585 9.591292 14.421254 21.494300 31.425092 44.684133 63.496326
2025-11-02 5.557389 9.037680 14.022837 21.517873 32.297140 47.000727 68.277625
2025-11-09 5.115908 8.612391 13.760676 21.692570 33.355827 49.580733 73.484542
2025-11-16 4.662690 8.121941 13.355151 21.612463 34.017764 51.604341 77.963891
2025-11-23 4.235956 7.630271 12.902950 21.417415 34.476774 53.329384 82.054311
2025-11-30 3.934751 7.312296 12.689040 21.558401 35.422083 55.768473 87.233430
2025-12-07 3.751047 7.180961 12.769266 22.174284 37.138127 59.438948 94.404954
2025-12-14 3.415534 6.757923 12.345180 21.957875 37.551174 61.181248 98.788286
2025-12-21 2.983940 6.120837 11.513045 21.013634 36.748857 61.022891 100.272363
2025-12-28 2.867173 6.045101 11.624634 21.633071 38.469490 64.789585 107.851232
2026-01-04 2.728241 5.914042 11.627720 22.062272 39.889754 68.128688 114.870194
2026-01-11 2.512293 5.614290 11.308513 21.912107 40.334455 69.932193 119.537556
2026-01-18 2.306739 5.314687 10.965817 21.694484 40.644798 71.517620 123.895382
2026-01-25 2.152044 5.102679 10.767827 21.718358 41.359035 73.770165 129.378206
2026-02-01 2.029274 4.944955 10.659456 21.894436 42.337099 76.479286 135.673189
2026-02-08 1.885459 4.728350 10.421453 21.813692 42.853365 78.430631 140.779440
2026-02-15 1.740601 4.494912 10.132615 21.617054 43.146968 80.007867 145.303695